Our warming trend will continue through Wed. with afternoon highs 75-80 Tue. & in the 80s Wed. The warmth will be surging northward ahead of a strong storm system that will trigger severe storms & flooding rains from Texas to the Ohio Valley & parts of the Northeast with even some snow on the northern fringe. This system will bring rain to the First Coast Wed. night-early Thu. There could be a few thunderstorms, but it appears instability will be lacking as the upper level support/energy lifts well to the north. This combination should mean some moderate rainfall, but I'm not particularly concerned about our severe risk at this point.
Quite a severe weather outbreak over the weekend that began with the now famous (infamous?) EF-2 tornado through downtown Atlanta Fri. evening. This was an isolated severe storm but with strong rotation. The tornado hit the CNN building a grazed the Georgia Dome making for a very interesting finish to the SEC Alabama-Miss. St. game. While the dome sustained 2 holes & some other damage, it could have been much worse. The strong EF-2 tornado missed a direct hit on the dome by a mere 100 yds. A direct hit would almost certainly have meant much worse damage not to mention casualties. Click here for the storm summary. One popular headline I read Sat. was that there was only a "slight risk of severe weather". I've always had a problem with using the risk verbage from the Storm Prediction Center for this very reason. Now, let me be understood that I believe SPC does a great job & rarely do killer storms strike outside of a watch area or when one's not in effect. But my point is that the general public -- & obviously the media -- don't understand the terms "slight", "moderate" & "high" when it comes to severe storm threats. I try to avoid these terms on the air for that very reason. A "slight" risk does not mean that severe weather won't occur &, in fact, far more often than not, there is at least one severe storm within a slight risk area on any given day (& usually more than one). While working in Cincinnati, an EF-4 predawn tornado ripped through the northeast part of the city killing 4....there was "only" a slight risk of severe storms but a tornado WATCH was in effect as well as a WARNING. I have a tendency to talk about severe storms when I expect them to occur using terms such as isolated, a few, numerous, etc. but stay away from the official SPC verbage. Here's are the specifics from the Storm Prediction Center regarding their outlooks:
Included with the discussion is a convective outlook for DAY 1 (today) and DAY 2 (tomorrow) and DAY 3. In each outlook a risk of severe thunderstorms is given. The 5 categories are an unclassified risk (labeled as SEE TEXT), general thunderstorms (GEN TSTMS), a slight risk (SLGT), a moderate risk (MDT), and a high risk (HIGH). Each of these risks is for an area of 50,000 square miles (about the size of Oklahoma). The number of severe reports will increase as the area of risk increases. Below is the interpretation SPC uses to classify each of the risks:
SEE TEXT: Situation in which a SLGT risk was considered but not warranted at the current time. It is referenced within the convective discussion text.
GEN TSTMS: Although the environment is favorable for thunderstorms, severe thunderstorms will not be widespread.
SLGT RISK: Less than 5 tornadoes and less than 30 reports of hail greater than 3/4" in diameter and wind greater than 58 mph (50 knots) is expected in the slight risk region.
MDT RISK: 6-19 tornadoes are expected with more than 30 reports of hail greater than 3/4" in diameter and wind greater than 58 mph (50 knots) is expected in the moderate risk region.
HIGH RISK: 20 or more tornadoes are expected with a at least 2 tornadoes being strong or violent (having the potential to produce F3 or greater damage) or for a derecho producing situation with more than 50 wind reports.
Saturday was also a big severe storm day. See storm summaries from the following N.W.S. offices:
-- Atlanta
-- Columbia, S.C.
-- Wilmington, N.C.
-- Birmingham, AL
Well...quite a day today for me on the Stadium Course, TPC -- home of "The Players". Once a yr. TPC has a "media day" & invites local & national media to play -- about 2 months before the tournament (May 8-11 this year). So today was our day AND I nailed a hole-in-one!!!! on #13 (see photo at the below). "Golfonline" describes #13 like this: The peninsula green at the 172-yard 13th is less daunting than the 17th, but has more curves than a repeat visitor to the hotel buffet. But wait...there's more -- I bounced an 8 iron off a tree to the right of the green on the 153-yd. par 3 (in my defense the tree was pin high!), stiff wind blowing left to right. The ball ricocheted off the tree on its downward flight & kicked just about 90 degrees toward the hole. We (Dennis Evans, sports director; Jack Miller, anchor/reporter; Karl Torp, anchor/reporter) couldn't see the finish, but I thought it went left, & Dennis thought he spotted it on or near the green. We walked up & found everyone's ball but my own. For some reason, no one thought to check the hole. I took a penalty stroke, dropped & hit onto the green. As our caddie walked up to tend the pin, he felt it tugging & looked down to see the ball -- my ball!! The first hole-in-one of my life. I let out a yell, made the rounds giving high fives & knocking fists. Hey...I'm a "hacker" -- a 15 handicap on a really good day & usually more like a 17-18. But this was my day -- St. Pat's Day, 2008 (I have no Irish heritage but was wearing a green shirt). It took me a while to come back to earth. My next shot on a par 4 tee shot went 25 yards left into a lake...never mind that I dropped 2 shots in the water on #17. Reality it might have been, but nothing would cloud my day on that golf course at that moment.
