It's looking like there are 2 weather concerns for the Easter weekend:
#1: A disturbance Sat. will move along a weak front across Central Florida. This will pull clouds northward into espcially Northeast Fl. & to a lesser degree over Southeast Ga. While rain will be most widespread across Central & South Florida, at least few showers can be expected over the First Coast -- again especially Northeast Fl.
#2: Strong low pressure should develop by Mon. over the Western Atlantic east & northeast of Jax. A few showers will be possible Easter night into Mon. though it looks right now like the main impacts from the system will be a strong & chilly northerly flow across the First Coast.
I mentioned Wed. that forecast models have been having a tough resolving the developing storm for early next week. Such model difficulties are not unusual this time of year -- near the Equinox -- when weather patterns are typically chaotic & fast-moving as the battle of the seasons reaches its peak resulting in strong temp. gradients across the Continental U.S. & fast-changing temps. & patterns.
Rainfall coverage was indeed 100% Wed. night-early Thu. with avg. rainfall a third of an inch or less. There were, however, some localized heavier bands: .50-1" fell in a narrow band from just south of Lake City to Macclenny to the Int'l. Airport to Fernandina Beach...another couple of small heavier bands occurred just east of Waycross & from near Palatka to St. Augustine. Here are amounts from CoCoRaHs:
BROOKER 6.6 SSE * : 0.22
GAINESVILLE 8.1 SW * : 0.26
GAINESVILLE 3.8 W * : 0.31
MACCLENNY 2.5 S * : 0.66
GREEN COVE SPRINGS 6.2 N * : 0.20
ORANGE PARK 4.8 SSW * : 0.21
KEYSTONE HEIGHTS 6.9 ENE * : 0.24
LAKESIDE 2.9 S * : 0.20
KEYSTONE HEIGHTS 7.6 ENE * : 0.22
ORANGE PARK 4.7 SW * : 0.25
KEYSTONE HEIGHTS 3.5 ENE * : 0.21
ORANGE PARK 3.0 WNW * : 0.25
MIDDLEBURG 6.5 NNE * : 0.42
ORANGE PARK 0.7 NNE * : 0.25
ACKSONVILLE 6.2 ENE * : 0.62
JACKSONVILLE 5.9 SW * : 0.50
JACKSONVILLE BEACH 3.9 WN* : 0.27
NEPTUNE BEACH 0.5 NNW * : 0.25
JACKSONVILLE 8.1 SSE * : 0.20
JACKSONVILLE BEACH 4.5 W * : 0.30
BUNNELL 7.7 SW * : 0.40
TRENTON 8.0 ENE * : 0.17
JASPER 5.5 S * : 0.48
BELLEVIEW 6.0 SSE * : 0.35
MICANOPY 3.6 SSW * : 0.66
DUNNELLON 2.4 NE * : 0.20
FERNANDINA BEACH 5.4 SW * : 0.80
HILLIARD 5.4 NW * : 0.10
INTERLACHEN 10.4 NNE * : 0.56
INTERLACHEN 8.2 W * : 0.61
ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTH 2.1 S* : 0.13
LIVE OAK 9.1 NW * : 0.52
Speaking of rain....our Jax N.W.S. has posted on their web site an experimental produce: "Hourly Precipitation Analysis". You can get rainfall for the past hour up to 72 hours ago & go as far back as Jan. 1, 2007. You can also check out different regions around the U.S. Click here.
NOAA has issued its spring flood outlook. Lots of problems in the middle of the nation eastward through the Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast due to a combination of snow melt, recent heavy rains & potentially persistent wet weather pattern. The forecast calls for dryer conditions to take hold across much of the south half to two-thirds of Florida, possibly reaching parts of the First Coast. Below average rainfall is indicative of spring during a La Nina pattern.
Current Major Flooding in U.S. a Sign of Things to Come This Season; NOAA Urges Communities to Prepare During Flood Safety Awareness Week
Major floods striking America’s heartland this week offer a preview of the spring seasonal outlook, according to NOAA’s National Weather Service. Several factors will contribute to above-average flood conditions, including record rainfall in some states and snow packs, which are melting and causing rivers and streams to crest over their banks. This week, more than 250 communities in a dozen states are experiencing flood conditions.
The science supporting NOAA’s short-term forecasts allows for a high level of certainty.
National Weather Service forecasters highlighted potential for the current major flood event a week in advance and began working with emergency managers to prepare local communities for the impending danger.
“We expect rains and melting snow to bring more flooding this spring,” said Vickie Nadolski, deputy director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Americans should be on high alert to flood conditions in your communities. Arm yourselves with information about how to stay safe during a flood and do not attempt to drive on flooded roadways – remember to always turn around, don’t drown.”
Nadolski called on local emergency management officials to continue preparations for a wet spring and focus on public education to ensure heightened awareness of the potential for dangerous local conditions.
Spring Flood Outlook
Above-normal flood potential is evident in much of the Mississippi River basin, the Ohio River basin, the lower Missouri River basin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, most of New York, all of New England, and portions of the West, including Colorado and Idaho:
* Heavy winter snow combined with recent rain indicates parts of Wisconsin and Illinois should see minor to moderate flooding, with as much as a 20 to 30 percent chance of major flooding on some rivers in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
* Current snow depth in some areas of upstate New York and New England is more than a foot greater than usual for this time of the year, which increases flood potential in the Connecticut River Valley.
* Locations in the mountains of Colorado and Idaho have 150 to 200 percent of average water contained in snowpack leading to a higher than normal flood potential.
Snowfall has been normal or above normal across most of the West this winter; however, preexisting dryness in many areas will prevent most flooding in this region. Runoff from snow pack is expected to significantly improve stream flows compared to last year for the West.
Spring Drought Outlook
The drought outlook indicates continued general improvement in the Southeast, although some reservoirs are unlikely to recover before summer. Winter precipitation chipped away at both the western and southeastern drought. On the U.S.
Drought Monitor, extreme drought coverage dropped from nearly 50 percent in mid-December to less than 20 percent in the Southeast for March.
* Overall, the Southeast had near-average rainfall during the winter with some areas wetter than average. Nevertheless, lingering water supply concerns and water restrictions continue in parts of the region.
* We expect drought to continue in parts of the southern Plains despite some recent heavy rain.
Parts of Texas received less than 25 percent of normal rainfall in the winter, leading 165 counties to enact burn bans by mid-March.
Seasonal forecasts for warmth and dryness suggest drought will expand northward and westward this spring.
