The forecast this week hinges on a "backdoor" front that will be moving down the coast Sat. It'll be all about timing as there will be quite a range of weather on one side vs. the other. At this point it appears most of the First Coast will be in advance of the front long enough Sat. to allow temps. to soar into the upper 70s to low 80s...maybe even some mid 80s from Lake City to Lake Butler to Starke & Palatka. From mid to late afternoon the front should be close enough to trigger a few showers & possibly a thunderstorm across mainly Southeast Ga. to as far south as possibly the Northern suburbs of Jax by very late in the day or early evening.
Sat. night-Sun. the entire area should be under the influence of gusty northeast winds, but the relatively cool Atlantic will make for a wide temp. contrast across the area from 60s pretty much all day near the coast including the beaches to mid to upper 70s well inland -- Lake City to Starke again. The I-95 corridor & much of metro Jax should be near 70 Sun. -- maybe some low to mid 70s on the far west side. There will also be enough moisture for a few showers from time to time. Any beach-goers Sun. should be aware of the rip current risk along with building seas & surf. In fact, the beaches are in for a long stretch of rough conditions as a persistent onshore flow -- of varying intensity -- will continue through at least Thu. including another couple days of pretty strong east winds Wed.-Thu. So pretty
high seas & surf, a noticeable east/northeast swell & a few showers will continue. Such an extended period of onshore flow will likely lead to at least some minor beach erosion.
Earth Gauge: Allergies and Weather
Tree pollens are typically the first allergens to show-up in the spring, causing problems for up to 40 million Americans that suffer from seasonal allergies. In Southern parts of the U.S., trees may have begun producing pollens as early as January, while production may not begin until April farther north. Regardless of where you live, the weather can have a major impact on allergy season:
A mild winter can result in earlier tree polination and an earlier start to the allergy season. If warm, mild weather continues into spring, pollen counts can rise.
A late-freeze that follows a mild winter can reduce tree pollen production, or even halt pollen production completely for some trees.
Windy weather increases pollen counts by spreading tiny pollens through the air.
Rainy weather initially decreases pollen counts, but can increase pollen production later in the year by spurring growth of late-spring and summer grasses. If preceding fall or winter seasons were rainy, tree pollen counts may increase during the spring months.
Tip: Right now, Oak, Cedar, and Juniper pollens are the main allergy culprits in Jacksonville, and pollen levels are high. If you suffer from seasonal allergies, reduce your exposure to tree pollens by avoiding outdoor activities during the early morning when trees usually emit pollens, between 5:00 and 10:00 a.m. Keep windows closed at night to keep pollens out of your home, and keep windows closed when traveling in the car.
(Sources: American College of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology. "Weather Forecasts Spring Pollen Allergy Severity." American Academy of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology. "Tips to Remember: Outdoor Allergens."
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Climate Fact: Ringed Seals and Warm Winters
Over the last 150 years, the average temperature of the Baltic Sea Basin has been rising at a rate of 0.14 degrees Fahrenheit per decade, which is slightly higher that the global trend of 0.09 degrees Fahrenheit per decade. This temperature increase has been most acutely felt during the winter, as the number of extremely cold days has decreased. The last ten winters have all been average or mild. One effect of this warming has been a change in the duration and thickness of the Sea’s winter ice cover. Over the last century, the length of the sea ice season has fallen by between 14 and 44 days. This reduction in ice has been linked to a decrease in the population of the endangered ringed seal, which, until this winter, appeared to be recovering after a century of over-hunting and pollution. The species nurses its young in ice lairs, and seal pups are dependent upon maternal care for about 40 days after birth. During this period, they grow in size and build up a layer of blubber, which protects them from the frigid waters. This winter has been the Basin’s warmest in almost 300 years, and the already retreating ice has exposed many of the ice lairs, which means that the pups have not had 40 days to prepare for the Sea. Few of the pups that were born this winter are expected to survive.
(Sources: The Helsinki Commission: “Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Area.” Baltic Sea Environmental Proceedings No. 111 (2007). Accessed Online 12 March 2008 and Kucharz, Christel “Warm Winter Kills Baby Seals.” ABC News, 11 March 2008. Accessed Online 12 March 2008
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Climate in the News: Allen-Mills, T. "Global warming scientists eagerly await first Nenana ice cracks" – Times Online, 23 March 2008 –
For the past 91 years, the exact minute when the Ice breaks on Alaska's Tanana River has been recorded.
"Earth Hour" is Sat. night 8-9pm. The crux of this hour -- when it's encouraged that people turn off their lights -- is to raise awareness about global warming. But
saving energy is always a good idea. Click here for info.
Have a great & safe weekend!
