While our weather on the First Coast will be pretty benign much of this week, a good part of the rest of the country will be dealing with a wide range of potentially wild early spring weather.
First for the First Coast: a weak "wedge" of northeast surface winds will dominate the pattern through at least Tue. before gradually breaking down at midweek. Daytime temps. will be near or slightly below avg. in the 70s though a tendency to be cooler at the beaches & near the coast. The next best chance for rain of any consequence appears to be Fri.night-Sat. as a cold front moves through the area accompanied by showers & a few thunderstorms. This front will be part of "headline-making" storm that should evolve Wed.-Fri. over the Central U.S. We could have a shot of pretty chilly air make it southward into the area by late in the weekend/early next week.
As for the stormy pattern for the rest of the nation...the first storm will move from the Rockies through the Midwest Mon.-Tue. night producing some severe weather in the Southern Plains to the Ohio & Tennessee Valley's & some wet snow in parts of the Upper Midwest. This storm will sort of set the table for the 2nd & much stronger storm. This is a classic spring set-up where an initial storm develops, draws moisture northward out of the Gulf...is strong enough to produce some severe weather & heavy precipitation, but the trailing front doesn't drop very far south because: (1) the surface low isn't real strong...(2) the next & stronger system quickly starts to have an effect. So when this next storm starts to evolve, the moisture is at its beckon call, & we wind up with a storm ready to "take off" with all the necessary ingredients readily available -- lots of severe storms will occur from the Southern Plains to Great Lakes & heavy snow will fall in parts of the Plains & Upper Midwest Thu.-Fri. The parent storm should end up quite a distance north of the First Coast by Sat., so it's possible the front's thunderstorm activity won't be terribly strong but that's not a sure bet yet depending on trailing upper level disturbances, time of day, etc.
This is Master's week, & we'll see evidence of this storm during the tournament. Thu. & Fri. look nice & warm though the front with the intense end of the week storm should be bring some showers & thunderstorms by Fri. night & -- depending on exact timing -- could be an issue late in the day for golfers finishing up. Sat. & Sun. look windy & unseasonably chilly with possibly some leftover showers. Given the intensity & magnitude of this storm, exact timing of the front &, therefore, the strongest convection will be subject to change.
