Hot! The longest stretch of consecutive 90+ degree days in nearly 7 months is on the way. Forecast high for Thu: 90...Fri: 92...Sat & Sun: 91. If we indeed hit 90 four days in a row, it'll be the first time since Oct. 12-15th (91, 92, 92 & 93 degrees respectively).
And it looks to be mostly dry & breezy with west/southwest winds of 10-20 mph but with higher gusts. So our fire danger will be high & even the beaches will approach 90 thanks to an offshore wind. We should see a few isolated thunderstorms with 2 most favored areas:
(1) near the sea breeze which should be "pinned" near the coast......
(2) Southeast Ga. which will be closest to a weak front which upper level disturbances will travel along.
For "The Players".....hot, partly sunny & breezy with an extreme UV index -- burn time will be near 15 min. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible each afternoon/early evening. A pretty strong cross wind -- from the west/southwest will blow each day & will be particularly gusty Thu., Fri., & again Sun. afternoon -- will be blowing on the infamous 17th...that's a left to right wind. The course will play just as the PGA has always wanted it to: fast & little room for error.
It looks like there will be a greater threat of storms late Sun. & Sun. night.
This from Al Gore on NPR Tue.:
"And as we’re talking today, Terry, the death count in Myanmar from the cyclone that hit there yesterday has been rising from 15,000 to way on up there to much higher numbers now being speculated. And last year a catastrophic storm from last fall hit Bangladesh. The year before, the strongest cyclone in more than 50 years hit China – and we’re seeing consequences that scientists have long predicted might be associated with continued global warming."
Ah, come on!! From the freedictionary.com:
o·ver·sim·pli·fy (vr-smpl-f)
v. o·ver·sim·pli·fied, o·ver·sim·pli·fy·ing, o·ver·sim·pli·fies
v.tr.
To simplify to the point of causing misrepresentation, misconception, or error.
v.intr.
To cause distortion or error by extreme simplification of a subject.
Fact is the majority of scientific evidence & the majority of people in the know --meteorologists! -- simply indicate there is no such cause & effect -- at least not to a degree that's at all significant. This is the consensus statement by the International Workshop on tropical cyclones-VI participants (courtesy NHC):
-- Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.
-- No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.
-- The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.
-- Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.
-- There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.
-- It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3-5% increase in wind-speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.
-- There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies.
-- Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate, there is low confidence in this projection. In addition, it is unknown how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact will change in the future.
-- Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult.
If the projected rise in sea level due to global warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase.
Inspection of sea surface temps. in the Bay of Bengal prior to the landfalling cyclone shows temps. only slightly -- less than 1 degree C -- above avg. sea surface temps. Check out the sea surface temp. map by clicking here (Bay of Bengal is about at 15 degrees N., 90 degrees E.).
