We'll see an increase in thunderstorms the next few days. Tue. evening severe storms will occur over a large area north of the First Coast from Alabama through Georgia into the Carolinas. Most of this activity will stay north of the First Coast, but a stray storm or two could move into the area from Waycross to Brunswick late tonight. More importantly... this large area of storms will likely develop an outflow boundary that will help push the effective cool front to near the Fl./Ga. border during the day Wed. which will serve as a focus for afternoon showers & storms. So the favored area for locally heavy & strong storms will be the I-10 corridor & about 30-40 miles either side of the interstate.
By Thu. & Fri., tropical moisture will be pulled north & east up into Florida & Georgia. A myriad of boundaries (weak front, thunderstorm outflow & sea breeze) + decent heating + the extra moisture should all add up to high coverage showers & storms. Forecast models are still having fits with the early weekend cool front that will drop south across the area. The European global model has the front moving through the area early Sat. which would imply a mostly dry Sat. with lower humidity that would continue through Memorial Day....the GFS global model holds the front back until late Sat./Sat. evening which would mean a stormy Sat. before the cooler, drier, northeast winds take over for Sun. & the holiday. We will likely have a pretty stiff onshore wind Sun. & Memorial Day which will keep beaches cooler but -- more importantly -- produce a potentially significant rip current risk.
Speaking of the beaches...this week is "National Beach Safety Awareness Week". As fun as our beaches are, always think safety first. Lightning, rip currents & people swimming & recreating too far offshore all make up for a deadly combination on our beaches every yr. From the N.W.S.:
EACH YEAR MILLIONS OF PEOPLE TRAVEL TO OUR BEAUTIFUL FLORIDA BEACHES AND LAKES...WITH MANY OF THEM ENTERING THE WATER. OUR WATERS CAN BE A WONDERFUL RECREATIONAL RESOURCE...BUT THEY CAN ALSO BE TREACHEROUS. LIFEGUARDS ARE PROVIDED IN AN EFFORT TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS AT OUR BEACHES...BUT THEY CANNOT DO THE JOB ALONE. PLEASE REMEMBER THE FOLLOWING TIPS WHEN TRAVELING TO RECREATE ON OR NEAR A BEACH THIS SUMMER...AND ALL YEAR ROUND:
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD
LEARN TO SWIM
NEVER SWIM ALONE
CONSIDER USING A FLOATATION DEVICE
DO NOT FIGHT THE CURRENT
SWIM SOBER
LEASH YOUR BOAT
DO NOT FLOAT WHERE YOU CANNOT SWIM
WHEN BOATING ALWAYS WHERE A LIFE JACKET
DO NOT DIVE HEAD FIRST
AT HOME...YOU ARE THE LIFEGUARD
NOAA announced Tue. the launch of a new satellite in June:
Jason-2 Satellite Data to Help NOAA Track Global Sea Level
A new satellite set to launch next month will monitor the rate of sea-level rise and help measure the strength of hurricanes, according to a leading NOAA scientist.
At a press briefing today, Dr. Laury Miller, chief of NOAA’s Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry, said NOAA will use data from the Jason-2/Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM) to extend a 15-year record from two earlier altimeter missions that currently show sea level is rising at a rate of 3.2 mm/year -- nearly twice as fast as the previous 100 years. “This rate, if it continues unchanged over the coming decades, will have a large impact on coastal regions, in terms of erosion and flooding,” said Miller.
The Jason-2/OSTM is scheduled for lift off June 15 at 1:47 a.m. from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The spacecraft is a joint, international effort between NOAA, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (Eumetsat).
Like its predecessor missions
TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1, Jason-2/OSTM is designed to extend the climate data record by providing a long-term survey of Earth’s oceans, tracking ocean circulation patterns and measuring sea-surface heights and the rate of sea-level rise. These are all key factors in understanding climate change.
The satellite will use a radar altimeter instrument attached to it and fly in a low Earth orbit allowing it to monitor 95 percent of Earth’s ice-free oceans every 10 days.
In addition to detecting climate change factors, Jason-2/OSTM will also be used in the prediction of short-term, severe weather events, such as hurricanes and tropical storms. According to Miller, NOAA will use the altimeter measurements to monitor ocean conditions that trigger changes in the strength of tropical cyclones, as they move over the ocean towards the land. The technique involves mapping the ocean heat content—the fuel that feeds a storm’s intensity—along the storm’s predicted track.
“Using data received in earlier altimeter missions during hurricanes with wind speeds in excess of 155 miles per hour, we’ve been able to reduce our intensity prediction error by an average of five percent – and in some cases as much as 20 percent,” Miller said. “If we increase the accuracy of intensity predictions, we help save lives.”
During the Jason-2/OSTM lifespan, NOAA will work with CNES to handle the complete ground system support. This includes commanding all the satellite’s maneuvers, downloading all the data the satellite captures, and distributing it to weather and climate forecasters, who are monitoring ocean-born storms and phenomena such as El Niño/La Niña and global sea-level rise.
Additionally, Jason-2/OSTM will be the first, newly launched satellite in which NOAA provides ground support from its NOAA Satellite Operations Facility in Suitland, Md. The facility opened in 2007 and houses $50 million worth of high-tech equipment and controls nearly $5 billion in satellites.
