We're looking at a wet Fri. with the potential for some very heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals should avg. 1-3" through Fri. evening with local amounts of 4 & even 5" possible. Rain should begin to increase late Thu. night then will be widespread Fri. through early Fri. evening. The set-up will be a stationary front near the Fl./Ga. border, an influx of moisture-laden strong south to southwest winds, a pretty strong upper level disturbance moving west to east along I-10 & a weak surface low that will move across far North Florida. While localized flooding is the main threat, an isolated severe storm south of the path of the low (so over Central & parts of North Fl.) is possible if we manage some sun & stronger surface heating.
Quite a lightning display over South Georgia Wed. night. Isolated spots picked up 1-4" of rain in Clinch, Ware, Charlton, Pierce, Brantley, Camden & Glynn Counties. Loyal viewer Jason Rubenbauer from Waycross shot the photo below as lightning lit up the night sky.
Sat. still looks potentially stormy in the afternoon as a cold front sweeps across the First Coast from north to south. But once the front moves through by Sat. night, the rest of the holiday weekend looks much cooler, breezy & less humid. Rip currents remain a very real concern at area beaches Sun. & Memorial Day.
A major severe weather outbreak is underway in the Plains & Rocky Mountains. Check out this spectacular video of a large, long-track, damaging tornado about 60 miles north of Denver which hit Windsor. Another tornado hit the north & east side of Laramie, Wyoming.
NOAA has issued their '08 tropical cyclone forecast:
Forecast Avg.
named storms 12-16 11
hurricanes 6-9 6
Cat.3+ hurricanes 2-5 2
A potentially interesting set-up is evolving for the first week or so of June. Long range forecast models have been showing the potential for tropical development in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico &/or far Western Atlantic. As consistent as the signal has been (some 8 or so forecast "runs" in a row), where & the intensity has been very inconsistent -- no surprise given this is a long range forecast. But it's not completely out of the realm of possibility as sea surface temps. are generally running a little above avg. + a very strong pulse of convection & upward motion (MJO) is working through the E. Pacific & W. Atlantic. This is something to watch for early season development BUT is in no way a sure bet -- interesting none-the-less.
