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First Alert Weather Blog

Heavy Rain Potential... Cloud Photo

Could be a soaker the next couple days.  Weak low pressure is developing over the far Northeast Gulf of Mexico.  This system will pump plenty of moisture northward across the First Coast with on-&-off rain & storms through Thu. that will not necessarily be confined to the afternoon/early evening thanks to all the moisture + east/southeast winds coming off the Atlantic.  Rainfall should be widespread Wed.-Thu. averaging 1-3" with locally higher amounts.  Localized excessive rains could cause some flooding depending on how the bands set up.  It's not out of the question this low could try to take on tropical characteristics but any real significant tropical development seems unlikley given the low's proximity to land & some dry air over the deep south.  Still...water over the Northeast Gulf is very warm (90+ in some cases while upwelling continues to keep the First Coast waters unseasonably cool) ... shear is pretty low ... & a weak trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. all add up to ingredients that could favor some development.

Check out the photo below from Denise & Jon Gussler -- Middleburg, FL. showing a shadow extending above a bank of cumulus clouds.

Published Tuesday, July 15, 2008 5:42 PM by mburesh

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