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Showers & storms will continue to be numerous Fri. through Sun. with heavy rainfall.  Storms could have some extra strength over the weekend thanks to an upper level disturbance dropping into the Southeast U.S. & eventually the Northeast Gulf.  At least some drying still looks likely for next week -- more of a typical pattern with sea breeze-driven afternoon/early evening thunderstorms.

The upwelling continues off our coast.  Persistent offshore winds are to blame & have driven temps. down as low as 72-74 degrees just a half mile offshore of Ponte Vedra.  Captain Sipler says it's put a crimp in his fishin' style.  Once we go into a more normal summer weather pattern, sea surface temps. should pretty quickly jump into the 80s.

A total solar eclipse (moon moves between the earth & the sun) will occur Fri., Aug. 1 BUT won't be visible from the U.S.  You'll have to head to Canada, Greenland, the Arctic, Russia or China.  Online viewing will be available -- click here.

After the moderate L.A. earthquake, lots of print about earthquakes in the U.S.  See the map below from the USGS regarding earthquake risk across the U.S. (greatest in the west...& from St. Louis to Charleston):

Our soaking rains continue & will remain with us through Sat.  Rainfall totals for the week from beginning last Sat. through this Sat. could easily reach 6"+.
Severe storms will be limited Wed. but could become more of a problem Thu.-Sat.  Check out the photo below from Debbie Godwin, Jacksonville.  The picture was taken during afternoon thunderstorms Tue.  What looks like funnel clouds or even tornadoes is actually a scud cloud(s).  Scud clouds form from the strong cool downdrafts in a storm which then abruptly lift the warmer air at & near the surface.  As the air rises, it quickly condenses to form scud clouds.  These are not dangerous & are not tornadoes.  Tornadoes & funnel clouds will rotate....& in classic situations will be on the back corner of a thunderstorm hanging from a low hanging, sometimes round & rain-free cloud referred to as a wall cloud.

It's bug time.....this from the "Farmer's Alamnac":
July is the time when summer bugs are at their best (or worst, as the case may be). Herbs can be used for pest control. Dried wormwood, yarrow, santolina, tansy, mint, and lavender are traditional moth repellents. If it’s your pet who’s bothered, try putting a drop of lemon oil or rosemary oil on his or her collar for flea control. Coping With Bugs includes a few more tips for dealing with some pests in the house and garden.
Click here for more.

Much drier mid & upper level air moved over the First Coast Thu. putting a pretty effective "lid" on convection.  However, a few thunderstorms still formed over Central Ga. & have been steadily marching south & east as other cells try to develop southwest into N. Central Fl. .... apparently in advance of a weak upper level disturbance.  Most of these should dissipate with sunset before making much progress into Southeast GA & Northeast Fl. though a few showers or thundershowers will still be possible into the middle of the night until the disturbance moves off the coast.
Thunderstorms will still be pretty widely scattered Fri. though a little more activity than Thu. before storms pick up again over the weekend.

It may not seem like it, but our hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin has been active for so early in the season.  We don't normally see our 2nd named storm until Aug. 6th & our first hurricane until Aug. 14....we've already had 4 named storms & 2 hurricanes.  And we're a long ways from the peak of our hurricane season -- Sept. 10th.

The Kingfish tourney is here -- Fri. & Sat.  The weather will generally cooperate -- seas will be quite calm averaging 2-3 feet but temps. will be hot with midday into the afternoon readings -- even offshore -- reaching near 90 degrees for a time.  There will be a threat for a widely scattered storm heading offshore Fri. but a greater threat Sat.  Click here for buoy reports off the First Coast.

I was in beautiful Brunswick, GA Thu. talking about hurricanes to the local Rotary Club.  What a beautiful city -- the perfect "one tank trip" when gas prices are so high.  A sign I saw there: "Aspire to Inspire Before You Expire" -- motto for the day!  And I found gas for $3.82/gallon just off I-95 at the Brunswick exit.  (Which begs the question if oil is down some 20+ bucks per barrel, why is it taking so long for gas prices to fall??!!)

I saw an interesting story on CNN this morning about a turtle mourning the loss of another turtle on a beach in Hawaii.  You need to see this -- click here.

RAGBRAI -- The Register's Annual Great Bike Ride Across Iowa -- is known as the biggest bike ride across any of our states.  I came across a number of stories from KCRG-TV in Cedar Rapids....a city not far from where I grew up.  In fact, RAGBRAI made an overnight stop Wed. in my hometown of Toledo.

Earth Gauge: Hot Dogs
Did you know that the temperature inside a car can rise by up to 40 degrees in one hour, even when outdoor temperatures are as low as 72 degrees Fahrenheit?  When the sun shines on car windows, they collect light and trap heat inside the vehicle, raising temperature quickly.  And, as the outdoor temperature rises, the effect becomes more pronounced.  The inside temperature of a car can reach 102 degrees in ten minutes on an 85 degree day, and on hot and humid days, cars parked in direct sunlight can warm up by 30 degrees per minute.
Tip: Pets are even more susceptible to overheating than humans are - dogs' sweat glands, which are located on their noses and pads of their feet, are inadequate for cooling off on hot days.  And, just like humans, certain pets are more sensitive to heat: short-nosed breeds, older or very young pets, and animals with weight, respiratory, or heart problems.  Many people are inclined to take pets along on summer travel or errands, but summer heat can be deadly for companion animals.  If you’re headed to a place where pets may not be allowed, leave them at home with plenty of water and shade, instead of leaving them in the car.
 
(Stanford School of Medicine, July 2005. “Parked Cars Get Dangerously Hot, Even on Cool Days, Stanford Study Finds.” ; Humane Society of the United States. “Cool It! Summer’s Heat can be Deadly for Your Pet.” 
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Climate Fact: Carbon Catch in the Amazon

Since at least the late 1970’s, trees in the Amazon have been growing faster despite the fact that climbing vines (lianas), which grow on trees as parasites and sap their energy, have also increased in number and spatial extent. This growth means that the rate at which each hectare (2.47 acres) in the Amazon takes carbon dioxide (CO2) out of the atmosphere has been increasing by about one metric ton (2200 pounds) per year since 1975, a trend can be largely explained by an increase in available atmospheric CO2, of which concentrations have grown from 280 parts per million in pre-industrial times to around 386 parts per million today. Another factor that helps to explain this faster growth is an increase in sunlight over the region during the last 30 years. More sunlight means more available energy for photosynthesis, the process through which plants use energy from the sun to convert atmospheric carbon into chemical energy and living matter. Increases in nitrogen and phosphorous (two key plant nutrients) deposition on the area, as a result of more burning and more dust blowing over the Atlantic from the Sahara, may also be contributing to the increased plant growth.
(Sources: Baker, TR et al. “Increasing biomass in Amazonian forest plots.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 359 (2004): 353-365 and Phillips, OL et al. “Changes in the Carbon Balance of Tropical Forests: Evidence from Long-Term Plots.” Science 282 (1998): 439-442 and Phillips, OL et al. “Pattern and process in Amazon tree turnover, 1976-2001.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 359 (2004): 381-407.)
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Climate in the News – "NOAA: Eighth Warmest June on Record for Globe." – Science Daily,  July 21, 2008 -

The combined ocean and land surface temperature in June was 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th century average. It was also the wettest June on record in parts of southern China, including Hong Kong.

I'll be "out of the loop" a bit but only 'til Mon.  Have a great weekend!

Thunderstorms Mon. evening in Tennessee into Georgia helped develop what's termed a "mesoscale vorticity maximum" -- or, more simply, a weak upper level disturbance.  The disturbance moved into Southeast Ga. during peak heating Tue. triggering numerous thunderstorms that moved south & east.  The sea breeze & many outflow boundaries also helped focus the storms.  And this may just be round #1 in what could be a pretty active night of storms which is atypical for this time of year as we usually see our late day storms die out in the evening.  But a pretty strong upper level disturbance is diving southeast into Alabama & Georgia & has ignited clusters of storms.  It's possible that some of these storms will continue overnight across the First Coast despite earlier storms & diurnal cooling.  Yet another disturbance will move into the area Wed. afternoon & should again help afternoon thunderstorms to erupt across the area.  Intensity & coverage could be limited some, however, by cloud cover.

"Dolly" will be rolling into far South Texas & far Northern Mexico Wed.  Go to our "Hurricane Center" & "Talking the Tropics With Mike" for specific info.  Some
interesting sites to look at as "Dolly" comes ashore: webcams from Padre Island & Brownsville.... "Hurricane Hollow" ....& W. Gulf & coastal Texas buoys.

Speaking of the tropics....the Madden-Julian Oscillation has "done its thing".  Velocity
Potential Anomalies (green indicates upper level divergence which aids convection, brown is the opposite) have maxed out over the E. Pacific & most of the Atlantic Basin.  Large areas of upper level divergence often times correlate to areas susceptible to tropical development.  The last large area of "upward motion" helped several tropical cyclones in the E. Pacific as well as "Bertha", "Cristobal" & "Dolly" in the Atlantic Basin.  The tail end of this upward motion is now in the E. Atlantic & is probably helping the strong wave near the Cape Verde Islands.  So we will now go into a period of "sinking motion" -- large scale subsidence (where air rises in one area, it has to go down in another) behind the large area of upper level divergence which should result in less tropical activity.  THAT DOES NOT MEAN NO TROPICAL CYCLONES!....but at least fewer & less frequent.  Timing the movement of upward & downward motion is not easy but is generally roughly about every 3-6 weeks or so & can be an especially good indicator of tropical activity when the ENSO is near neutral such as it is now (trending out of the strong La Nina).  Our next period of upward motion would appear to be somewhere in mid August, maybe a little later OR SO.  This would correspond with the climatological high end of the hurricane season, so it would be no surprise if mid Aug. to early or mid Sept. would be "tropically busy".

Our "swirl" could become a tropical cyclone this weekend as it moves toward the Carolina's.  By late Fri. evening the low had become a tropical depression, & it'll be a close call on whether or not it can become a tropical storm because of its proximity to land.  Either way, the effects on the First Coast will be minimal -- some heavy showers Fri. evening,
offshore winds for the weekend, & that's pretty much it.  More significant impacts will be confined to the Carolina's including some much-needed rainfall.
As usual....the tropics will be updated throughout the weekend at "Talking the Tropics With Mike".
The local weather story this weekend will end up being the return of the heat.  High temperatures will soar to the mid 90s with heat indices near or even a little above 100.  Thunderstorms will occur each afternoon but will be scattered.  Where the storms occur, expect frequent lightning & blinding downpours.

Earth Gauge: UV-Aware
July is UV Awareness Month!  Ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun causes sunburn and other health effects, including skin cancer and cataracts. Everyone should protect themselves from the sun, and some groups can be particularly susceptible to health effects from sun exposure:
Kids: About 25 percent of a person's lifetime exposure to UV radiation occurs before the age of 18, meaning that it is especially important to protect children - who may not know how to properly protect themselves - from sun exposure.
Gardeners and Farmers: The National Gardening Association found that the average gardener spends 2.8 hours per week in the garden.  Because they spend lots of time outside, gardeners and farmers can be more at-risk for skin cancer.
Older Individuals: Older people's skin cells are less able to repair DNA damage caused by exposure to the sun.  There is also evidence that UV-B radiation from the sun puts older people at increased risk of developing cataracts.
Tip: When possible, work and play outside during the cooler parts of the day - before 10:00 a.m. and after 4:00 p.m. - and remember that it is possible to burn on a cloudy day, even when the sun doesn't seem bright.  Use a sunscreen with a Sun Protection Factor (SPF) of at least 15 that provides protection from both UVA and UVB rays.  Apply sunscreen liberally and often, and wear protective clothing - hat, sunglasses, long-sleeved shirt, and pants.
 
Added Bonus: Gardening in the early morning or evening is better for your plants, too!  Water evaporates more quickly in the sun, so watering during the cooler parts of the day means your plants retain more water.  Transplants will also fare better if performed during cooler parts of the day, when there is less stress from the sun's heat.
(Sources: The Skin Cancer Foundation. "Sage Advice." ; Fosdick, Dean (Associated Press), July 9, 2008. "A Growing Problem." The Washington Post Express; U.S. EPA Aging Initiative. "UV Radiation and Health Effects."; U.S. EPA Office of Air and Radiation. September 2006. "The Sun, UV, and You: A Guide to Sunwise Behavior."
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Climate Fact: Looming Lake Loss
Most of the Arctic has warmed considerably over the last 30 years, and parts of Alaska have warmed by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit. Despite an increase in precipitation during this same period, the region is losing its lakes. In Alaska, for example, the total area of the region's lakes has shrunk by between 14 and 30 percent. In Siberia, there has been a six percent decrease in total lake surface area. This decrease would be greater if it were not offset by an increase in lakes at the most northern regions. Both the increases and decreases are part of the same process. As the ground warms, pockets in the soil collapse and depressions in the surface form. At first, water flows into these depressions and creates lakes. This water, however, facilitates warming of deeper layers of the soil. These layers then become permeable, and the lake water drains into the subsurface and the lakes disappear. Because waterfowl inhabit these lakes in the summer, the lake losses threaten the hunting opportunities that the region's inhabitants have enjoyed for generations. 
(Source: Smith, LC et al. "Disappearing Arctic Lakes." Science 308 (2005): 1429-1430 and Lovett, Richard. "Warming May Be Drying Up Alaska's Lakes, Photo Study Says." National Geographic News: 17 October 2006. Accessed online 14 July 2008
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Climate in the News – "Intensified Ice Sheet Movements Do Not Affect Rising Sea Levels." – Science Daily,  July 11, 2008 ......While meltwater is rapidly increasing the pace of ice sheet movement in Greenland, new research suggests that this process is not likely to be a major contributing factor to rising sea levels.

Have a great & safe weekend...stay cool!

The low pressure system that was west of Tampa & showing true signs of organization Tue. night/early Wed. suddenly "jumped" inland Wed. which pretty much rules out any tropical development.  However, an upper level low is still over the extreme Eastern Gulf & the low has been sort of recentering itself from time to time.  Should the low manage to reform in the Eastern Gulf then it would again become a system to watch.
In any case, we should still see an increase in rain through Thu. night as the broad low pressure area slowly moves north.  Showers & a few storms will produce heavy downpours & -- where training (cell after cell) occurs -- some excessive rainfall will occur.

NOAA: Eighth Warmest June on Record for Globe

The combined average global land and ocean surface temperatures for June 2008 ranked eighth warmest for June since worldwide records began in 1880, according to an analysis by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Also, globally it was the ninth warmest January - June period on record.

Global Highlights

* The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for June 2008 was 60.8 degrees F, which is 0.9 degrees F above the 20th century mean of 59.9 degrees F.

* Separately, the global land surface temperature was 57.2 degrees F, which is 1.3 degrees F above the 20th century mean of 55.9 degrees F.

* The global ocean surface temperature was 62.2 degrees F, which is 0.7 degrees F above the 20th century mean of 61.5 degrees F.

* For the January - June period, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was
57.1 degrees F, which is 0.8 degrees F about the 20th century mean of 56.3 degrees F.
Other Highlights
* Northern Hemisphere Arctic sea ice extent for June 2008 ranked third lowest for June since records began in 1979. Southern Hemisphere Antarctic sea ice extent for June 2008 was above the 1979-2000 mean, ranking as the second largest June extent.

* La Nina conditions transitioned to a neutral phase during June.
* Torrential rain lashed southern China from June 7-18. These were followed by more heavy rain from typhoon Fengshen late in the month. The downpours caused widespread floods and affected more than five million people. June 2008 was the wettest month ever for Hong Kong, Guangzhou, and Macao based on records that began in 1884.

Showers & thunderstorms will continue to be active much of this week but much will hinge on possible low pressure developing over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico.
In fact, we might need to watch this area for possible tropical development if the low can stay away from land.  The combination of persistent clusters of thunderstorms + a weak frontal boundary/trough of low pressure + a mature MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation) all could spell trouble.  Any development would likely be gradual, but it'll be interesting to watch.  This as the tropics "heat up"...."Bertha" is near Bermuda...a tropical wave is in the Southeast Caribbean...a strong wave is in the Central Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles...& another wave is in the E. Atlantic off the coast of Africa.  Any of these have
the potential to develop, & it seems likely that we'll have "Cristobal" sometime this week.

Lots of lightning around the First Coast the last few days.  Check out the photo below by Greg Palmer as lightning strikes in Ponte Vedra near the Walden Chase Subdivision.

And speaking of photos....check out the Wahoo I landed Fri. while deep sea fishing with some friends near the Gulf Stream off the coast of Ponce Inlet just south
of Daytona.  Turned out to be 35 lbs. & is easily the biggest fish I've ever caught.  Good fun.  (Watch out for the speed trap in Ponce Inlet!!)

On a much more somber note...Sat. marked the unfortunate passing of Tony Snow.  Snow battled cancer with courage & faith.  Read his "Cancer's Unexpected Blessings" written in July, 2007.